After the eastern Pacific got off to an early, rapid start with its tropical storm season (which isn't unexpected in an El Nino year), we're looking at our first tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 12 hours. On satellite, this storm has been getting its act together:
National Hurricane Center thinks we'll likely see Tropical Storm Bill by tonight. This storm is forecast to run out of ocean really fast, though, and hit the Gulf coast of Texas tonight and tomorrow. From Weather Underground, here are the recent 18Z GFS ensemble forecasts for the track of this cyclone over the next several days.
Weather Prediction Center (NOAA/WPC) is forecasting some intense rainfall amounts over the next three days, with a swath over 6 inches from Texas into Oklahoma and western Arkansas, and over 3 inches from Missouri into central and southern Illinois.
Unfortunately, it's that same ridge that is directing the storm over areas that really don't need any more rain right now. Here's a map of the percentage of normal precipitation during this May. Much of Oklahoma and Texas received 200-500% of their normal precipitation for May.