Monday, August 8, 2011

Some relief for the upper midwest and the northeast

Just a quick post today looking at the upper-air pattern forecast for this week.

It continues to be warm in the central part of the country.  The Climate Prediction Center outlook for the next 6-10 days continues that trend:
CPC 6-10 day outlook of temperature probability as of Aug. 7, 2011.
In the meantime, though, cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected for the Pacific Northwest and much of the upper Midwest and northeast.  It looks like the only places catching a break from the heat will be the Midwest and the mid Atlantic states.

Of course, with cooler weather also comes the rain--the same troughing that ushers in cooler temperatures also brings that colder air closer to the very warm air sitting to the south.  The tightening of the temperature gradient there promotes stronger winds aloft and more convergence at the surface.  Both of these ingredients contribute to increased chances of storms.  Therefore, the CPC's 6-10 day precipitation forecast shows a similar pattern:
CPC 6-10 day outlook of precipitation probability as of August 7, 2011.
No relief in sight for the drought-stricken areas of Texas and the southern Plains.

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