Monday, November 21, 2011

Torrential rains for Seattle

The rainy season is here in Seattle.  The forecast for the next few days says it all...
A series of upper-level disturbances moving over the Seattle area combined with a favorable flow pattern aloft are helping to bring in copious amounts of moisture to the Pacific Northwest over the next few days.  Here's a capture of the satellite water vapor image from late this afternoon.  You can see a plume of moisture stretching from the Pacific Northwest far out into the Pacific.  All that moisture is headed ashore in the next few days.

How much rain are we talking about here?  A lot.  Here's a forecast map from our 4-km WRF model of precipitation totals over the next 72 hours over western Washington.  We're maxing out the scale of the color bar on this map here...
When you do the division correctly with that color bar, that works out to between 4-10 inches of liquid (!) precipitation over most of western Washington over a 72 hour period.  Will this verify?  Who knows.  It seems a bit excessive to me.  But I have done several independent WRF runs looking just at Seattle, and I consistently am getting total accumulations of around 5 inches over the next several days.  It's going to be very, very wet...

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