And, unfortunately, there's a risk of another round of severe storms for that part of the country on Monday. The SPC has a slight risk out for a narrow corridor of the southern US.
|Fig 1 -- SPC day 2 convective outlook valid 1729Z, May 1, 2011.|
|Fig 2 -- ECMWF 24-hour forecast of 500 mb winds (colors) and heights (contours) for 12Z, Monday, April 2, 2011.|
By Tuesday evening, we can see in the GFS forecast for dewpoint temperature that rich moisture will only have just reached northern Mississippi and Alabama.
|Fig 3 -- GFS 30-hour forecast of surface dewpoint temperature valid 00Z, Tuesday (Monday evening), April 3, 2011.|
For the rest of this week, the flow pattern looks more zonal in the models--east-west flow--with a few troughs staying further north. Zonal flow can be a mixed blessing--it's not ridging, so it doesn't indicate widespread subsidence conditions and necessarily calm weather. But, it's also not troughing, which would indicate significant storms. Zonal flow patterns are also harder to forecast--because they don't indicate significant troughs or ridges, small differences in models can grow to become much larger differences later on.
Regardless, here's the 500mb European model forecast image for Friday:
|Fig 4 -- ECMWF 120-hour forecast of 500mb winds (colors) and heights (contours) valid 12Z, Friday, May 6, 2011.|