I had a very slight acquaintance with Joplin. Every time I would drive between my home in northern Illinois and the University of Oklahoma in Norman, I would stop in Joplin, often for lunch and always to get gas. The gas station at which I always stopped no longer exists. Their delightful main street with its Route 66 nostalgic decorations is decimated. I just can't believe the scenes I'm seeing.
And, unfortunately the weather is gearing up for yet another round of severe storms on the southern plains. The SPC already has a moderate risk out for Tuesday.
|Fig 1 -- SPC Day 2 convective outlook as of 1730Z, April 23, 2011. From the SPC.|
First, the 500mb forecast shows a compact shortwave moving out into the central plains with a small, but still powerful jet streak on the southern side of the trough:
|Fig 2 -- NAM 30-hour forecast of 500mb height (contours) and winds (colors) at 00Z, Wednesday (Tuesday night), April 25, 2011. From the HOOT website.|
|Fig 3 -- NAM 30-hour forecast of 850mb height (contours) and winds (colors) at 00Z, Wednesday (Tuesday night), April 25, 2011. From the HOOT website.|
|Fig 4 -- NAM 30-hour forecast of dewpoint temperatures (colors) and winds (barbs) at 00Z, Wednesday (Tuesday night), April 25, 2011. From the HOOT website.|
For another look at all of these ingredients being condensed together in the models, here's a forecast sounding for 21Z on Tuesday afternoon at Norman, OK:
|Fig 5 -- NAM 27-hour forecast sounding for Norman, OK, at 21Z, Tuesday, April 24, 2011. From the HOOT website.|
Even some medium-scale models are explicitly forecasting some major storms. Here's the OWL/WRF model at the University of Oklahoma and its forecast for simulated composite radar reflectivity at 00Z on Tuesday evening:
|Fig 6 -- 48-hour OWL/WRF forecast of simulated composite reflectivity valid 00Z, Wednesday (Tuesday evening), May 25, 2011. From the HOOT website.|
We can also simulate an infrared satellite image from the model output. Here's the simulated infrared satellite image from the same model at the same time:
|Fig 9 -- 48-hour OWL/WRF forecast of simulated infrared temperature at top of atmosphere, valid 00Z, Wednesday (Tuesday evening), May 25, 2011. From the HOOT website.|